[Phillip Beall]

All

The subject line I wanted to use was too long, so I shortened it up.  Here is what I wanted to use:

Ham Radio “Dying on the Vine”?  Video Review, Pre-2007 Reality vs. Post-Morse Growth, and Latest 2026 Numbers

At various time I have had chats with fellow hams about the state of the hobby.  One recently described it as “dying on the vine,” and the aging demographic is definitely a real concern.  But I have been under the impression that things were stagnating or declining before the Morse Code requirement was eliminated in 2007, and that numbers improved afterward.  Then this morning I watched this excellent YouTube video (Where Did All the Ham Radio Operators Go? The Truth Is Sad (link below)) that Haskell Maroney (K5HRM) recommended.  Afterwards I had some questions and so I reviewed its transcript and did some additional research.  The transcript is available at this link.  In any case, the historical storytelling is compelling (history of “ham” moniker, early chaos, wars, resilience, etc.), but a few license stats needed updating.  And at the conclusion, I think the title is a little off.  The numbers just aren’t that bad, not that far from the peak.  At 13:06 long I did enjoy and recommend that you watch it (link below), but here’s a fact-checked overview using current ARRL/FCC data as of May 20, 2026:

License Numbers: Pre- vs. Post-Morse Code Elimination – Facts I wanted to know #1

The FCC fully eliminated the Morse Code (CW) exam requirement effective February 23, 2007.

Pre-2007 (I went back roughly ten years, 1997–2007):  Growth was mostly flat or declining.  Totals hovered in the ~650k–710k range with some dips, influenced by the 2000 license restructuring and other factors.  Many in the community, including ARRL voices, were concerned about stagnation.  To many the hobby it did feel like it was losing momentum, supporting the “dying on the vine” sense at the time.

Post-2007: Numbers increased steadily, reaching record highs of ~755,000–757,000 around 2018–2019.  We saw net growth of roughly +40k–45k from 2007 levels to the peak.  As of May 20, 2026, there are 733,531 active individual US amateur radio licenses — still well above pre-2007 figures, though down modestly from the peak due to aging operators, expirations, the $35 renewal fee introduced in 2022 and perhaps the growing ubiquity of smartphone technology.

Why Did the FCC Make the Change? – Facts I wanted to know #2

It wasn’t done in a vacuum.  The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) dropped the global Morse requirement in 2003.  The ARRL actively petitioned the FCC and filed for reconsideration to modernize the rules and encourage growth.  (Emphasis added – Phillip)  The FCC stated the change would “further the public interest by encouraging individuals who are interested in communications technology… and eliminating a requirement that is now unnecessary and may discourage Amateur Service licensees from advancing.”

This directly backs the point: lowering the Morse barrier helped reverse earlier stagnation.

Key Sources:

ARRL FCC License Counts (updated through May 20, 2026)
FCC Order Eliminating Morse Code (Dec 2006)
ARRL History of License Changes
Historical charts: AmateurRadioData by Keith Greiner and Joe Speroni (AH0A) FCC Stats

Age Demographics (Spot-On in the Video)

Overall average age: mid-60s (63–68 range)
Technician (entry-level): average 58
General: average 66
Amateur Extra: average 67
Less than 10% (roughly 8%) are under 40.  The pipeline of younger operators is thinner than ideal, and this is where clubs can make the biggest difference.

Geographic notes (accurate in the video): Idaho and Utah lead with ~1,160 operators per 100,000 residents; New York ~300; D.C. lowest at ~174. Japan has also seen significant declines.

FT8 and Hurricane Helene (2024) – A Modern Success Story

The video highlights how digital modes like FT8 (developed by Nobel laureate Joe Taylor (K1JT) and Steve Franke (K9AN)) revived HF activity during solar minima.  FT8 uses advanced weak-signal processing (50 Hz bandwidth, rigid 15-second global cycles synchronized by atomic clocks) to make contacts even when signals are inaudible to the human ear — perfect for modest antennas and low power.

This capability was crucial during Hurricane Helene in late September 2024, which devastated western North Carolina and parts of Tennessee:

• The storm destroyed cell towers, power grids, fiber lines, and roads, cutting off entire communities.
• Ham operators filled the gap using mountain-top repeaters like the one on Mount Mitchell and HF emergency nets (e.g., 3.923 MHz and 7.232 MHz).
• They handled thousands of health/welfare messages, coordinated medical evacuations, supply deliveries, and wellness checks when 911 and standard comms were completely down.
• For several critical days, amateur radio was often the only reliable long-distance communication system in the region.
• The event triggered a measurable spike in new license applications afterward, especially in North Carolina and Florida.

Sources on Helene: ARRL storm updates (link here) and detailed Helene updates (link here) confirm the critical role of ARES and local operators.

Bottom Line

The video does a great job on the hobby’s history, emergency value, and the real aging challenge.  But I think the post-2007 growth after Morse elimination shows we can rebound by reducing barriers and embracing new technologies like FT8.  See, some would say that FT8 isn’t really “ham radio”.  I think ham radio has a lot of varied options for all the various interests.  But even if you are a diehard analog fan, to say that FT8 isn’t really “ham radio”; I think the people who benefited from it in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene; I’ll bet they consider it real “ham radio”.  I know some hams get a little down because not everyone is as enthusiastic as they are, but I think the ham radio operator numbers kind of follow the 90-9-1 website forum numbers I have previously mentioned.  The infrastructure, frequencies, and proven public service role are still strong — the key is attracting and mentoring the next generation through clubs, youth outreach, digital mode demos, and emergency prep.  And I say the RRVARC, with a relatively small community, is doing a really good job of that.  😎

73

Phillip Beall (W5EBC)

 

Check out this video:

[K5HRM]

First, I want to thank Phillip for his time and effort in this excellent post. I am one of the many to say FT8 is not radio. Mark is proving me wrong on that. It’s the new innovations in amateur radio that may attract younger operators. I will try to do better in learning the digital world of radio.
Playing a repeat record, we rarely have any traffic on the club repeaters. I monitor the 444.500 most of the time. It is the one I can use with a HT anywhere around the place. I don’t know what the answer is.
Thanks again Phillip.

[Kathy Beall]

I found this to be very interesting!  Thank you Haskell for sharing the video and Phillip for posting.  I too hope our members will take the time to watch it, some very interesting history. 👏🏼

[Steven Smith]

No surprise to me about the real stats.

I always strive to not laugh out loud at those that stat

“The real reason the ARRL member numbers are so low now

is because so many amateurs are dying”

Here are some stats……..

current 733,701 licensed amateurs

Current ARRL stats as of last month

113,215 Full ARRL members.

Unless my math is wrong that is 15.44 percent of the us ham population are ARRL members

 

[Phillip Beall]

All,

Thanks for the kind words, everyone — I’m glad the post sparked some discussion.  Haskell (K5HRM), I’m right there with you on giving digital modes a fair shot.  And I am going to have to buckle down and get my General knocked out.  Clearly FT8 and the likes has proven its value in ways that go beyond just racking up contacts.  It’s not replacing ragchewing or contesting, but it keeps HF alive when propagation is marginal and has real EmComm utility, as we saw with Helene.  For anyone that is interested, here is an ARRL Article making that point Ham Radio Serving Southeast US Recovery Efforts (October 4, 2024) (link here).  It references Winlink specifically and talks about its extensive use.

Steven (KG5VK), those ARRL membership numbers are a great point. ~15.4% penetration is low, but it’s a reminder that the total licensed pool is still the bigger picture.  The challenge is converting more of those 733k+ licensees into active participants and, more importantly to me, into club members who show up on the air or at events.

One thing that stood out to me while digging into the latest stats is how the aging curve hasn’t flattened yet, but there are pockets of growth.  Technician licenses (the entry point) still make up a healthy share of new issuances, and events like Field Day, license classes, and public service activities continue to bring in newcomers.  Our club’s relatively small size can actually be an advantage here — it’s easier to mentor folks one-on-one and run targeted demos (Meshtastic, digital modes, APRS, etc.).  And RRVARC has shown some steady growth over the last few years, so I am convinced that as a club we are doing something right.

Mark has asked me to do a short presentation on Meshtastic at the upcoming June 20th Club meeting.  I hope the low-barrier entry point to participating in that might make it appeal to the next generation (and re-engage some of the silent licensees).  We already do a solid job with what we have — building on that with hands-on sessions would seem likely to help.

73

Phillip Beall (W5EBC)

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